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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  September 9, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT

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julie: you are watching the european close on "bloomberg markets." mark: we take you from washington to milan to cover stories out of the u.k. wall street in the next hour, here's what we're watching today. the italian bank tries to pull capital and raise shut bad loans. it's ousting its chief executive. let's next chief have an impossible job? they say it's time to get defensive as he the feds raising rates. saysresident rosengren waiting too long to raise rates threatens the economy. deutsche bank shares jumping the most in two months, with the news they are reaching a
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settlement deal with the u.s. on mortgages. is there light at the end of the tunnel? mark: looking at european equities, is a down day. is the global macro movers. bit, weipulated this a theseeing declines currencies are falling against the dollar and the second screen. these are rising yields today. commodities down by 1.2%, the most since august 2. are not too pleased with mario draghi. didn'tnot even the -- even talk about raising.
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monsanto is that be pushing for a price closer to $130. , the price oneek the table was 12750. 130 would bemed as the price. with a huge premium relative to current share price is in with the virus offering, $127.50. it seems hundred $30 is the magical number, according to people familiar with the matter. that deal is in the final stretch. one of the big brewers and public owners, shares falling. uncertainty is translating into the softening of some economic indicators. and reduction of consumer confidence. sales rising 1.7% in the 18 week
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to september the fourth. this is a great chart, that tells us how a rally in european corporate bonds has raised the negative cooperation between the yields and the dax index. the corporate indices show the stretch between investment-grade and high-yield debt narrows 13%, the white line in the last month. just 2%, the blue line. that means the 30 day correlation, which is the bottom line tween the two has risen to -.9% in july.om 90 minutes into the trading day in the united states, and abigail doolittle has the latest. abigail: complacency in the u.s. 43 weeks, the s&p 500 for economic and the 1% or greater move has ended today. we have the s&p 500 down more dow and true to for the
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the nasdaq. it's a broad-based selloff. as we take a look at the imap function, we see lots of red among the sectors. utilities in real estate could reflect the fact that investors have bought those stocks for yield dividend yields. now there could become petition. this takes us to the 10 year yield, which is spiking higher having its best to day spike higher since july 12. they expect the fed to raise rates sooner rather than later. we go into the bloomberg and #btv3422, this g is a three-year chart of the 10 year yield. the high on the 10 year yield was right around 3% back in 2012 and 2013. the taper tantrum around the
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yield, hitting that low back in july, right around 1.31%. back on the bottom of the ranges above the midpoint of the range. this chart may suggest that jeff gundlach could be correct that it may rise to 10% by the end of the year. let's take a look at a few other asset classes we take a look at oil. this could be one headwind for stocks hoping to create the risk off feeling that we are seeing. 2.5%, with a weekly game to have come plunge in stockpiles. we are seeing consolidation of that move. gold istill higher, and pretty interesting. our risk off day would trade higher. but in the context of expectations for raids to move up, it would trade lower. not surprisingly, julie, we have it right in the middle. ofie: thanks for the tour what's going on today on a
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fascinating day and markets we are seeing reversals. checking in on the bloomberg first world -- first word news. >> president obama has joined those condemning north korea's nuclear weapon test. they say it shows they have the ability to mount an atomic weapons on rockets. the president warned that the u.s. will never accept a nuclear armed korea -- north korea, and so there will be more economic sanctions. france's president says the parties were able to foil a pair attack.- a terror authorities have arrested three women plotting imminent attacks later this week. chambers --f gas gas canisters was found. the car belonged to the father of one of the suspects. american officials are downplaying the chances of a cease-fire in the syrian civil war. earlier, u.s. officials
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suggested that john kerry would not go to switzerland unless the deal was invalid. .5 million people have been killed in five years of fighting in syria. the flood in louisiana was the costliest disaster in the u.s. of this year. the risk modeling arm of insurance broker aon indicates it could cost up to $15 billion. most of that was uninsured. the louisiana flood damaged as many as 110,000 homes and more than 100,000 vehicles. the pivotal phase of the presidential election starts today in north carolina. the first of 37 states will inow early voting in mail or person. early voters are respected to cast up to 75% of all ballots in some of the races most pivotal states. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe, this is bloomberg. banker monte paschi is
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seeking a change of leadership to back the italian lender turnaround. is dan leaf green. dan liefgreen. dan: the headline was the banking industry's mission impossible, for sure. what can i say, this is a bank that for example, in four years, he recognizes a pretty solid chief executive. he couldn't turn it around after two stock sales, government bailout. it's going to be tough. time is running out. in the sense that this is the bank that has the worst results of the european stress test in july. it has to raise probably as much as 5 billion euros of capital. severaling to unload
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billion euros of bad loans. at a time when markets don't seem to be terribly encouraging to do operations like this. other banks also have to raise capital. challenge facing the next version taking over the ceo chair. mark: who is the next person going to be? obvious question right now. the italian papers today were touting the head of bank of america merrill lynch operations in italy, who also used to be cfo at monte paschi. he worked in italy's number two bank. we will see. the treasury, which remains the largest shareholder in monte is looking toow get someone in their as soon as
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possible. the consensus today is that probably is not going to happen this weekend, more likely last week. julie: just take a step back, with the important -- what is the importance for the italian banking system and the bigger european banking landscape if withs go further south this opening at the top? dan: certainly, the italian government wants to avoid a bailout of this bank. that is the last thing that runs the needs as he faces a crucial referendum on his belittle reforms later this year. sometime between november and december. he has already staked his political future on this. this.ds to get it's at the top of the agenda. use ofut, risking the
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public funds, of state intervention, would not be good news. voters tot encourage keep this government alive. it's only italy's number three bank, but it has lots of small shareholders, lots of retail investors who are holding these bonds, for example. unicredit, which is itself also named a new chief executive not too long ago to speed up its restructuring, we are hearing reports -- it's up to all sorts of things to boost its capital. what is the latest? that thelatest is former investment banker is moving very fast to do a couple of things.
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number one, asset disposals. he already announced at the end of the summer and at the end of august that the bank essentially pulled out of the agreement it had towards asset management unit pioneer. partner, aing for a joint venture, and outright disposal of that unit. it's large, a big asset manager. we are about a few billion euros , probably, if he decides on an asset closure. at the same time, the results from the european stress test weren't credit -- worked terrific, in terms of being systemically important bank. he didn't fear that well. paschi's next ceo is probably going to have to raise capital. mark: thanks for giving a wonderful overview of the italian banking industry. dan liefgreen, bloomberg
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milan bureau chief. julie: traders are reappraising the ecb's plan. we have the latest, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: live from london, i am mark barton, counting down to the european close. we are about 15 minutes away. julie: i'm julie hyman. time for the bloomberg business flash, it would the biggest business stories in the news right now. a veteran volkswagen engineer has pleaded guilty to conspiring to defraud u.s. regulators and customers. it is the first criminal charge in the justice department year-long investigation into air reading of federal pollution tests. he answered his plea in detroit
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federal court today, facing a maximum penalty of five years in prison when ntenced. the founder of a big british pub chain says the u.s. does not trade deal with the european union. he says he says eu countries sell twice as much to the u.k. as the u.k. cells back. he says brexit may have a bositive impact on the pu business. he has been one of the most vocal brexit supporters. that is your business flash for this hour. mark: breaking news, negotiations between bayer and tosanto moving closer agreement to create the world's biggest maker of seeds and pesticides with a deal expected to be announced next weekend. with months of back-and-forth that followed by the initial offering may, bloomberg karen hirschfield breaks the story. are we entering the final furlong?
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>> i hope so. we think we're getting close. talking to people familiar with the matter who say negotiations are getting closer and closer. we saw on monday the announcement from bayer that they had bumped their offer, and monsanto said they are reviewing it. we know from people familiar that they are looking for $130, but people are getting optimistic they could see something next week. mark: we haven't moved the shares. why aren't they moving northward , if this deal could be concluded next week? a big issue is antitrust. they are still discussing the original offer, was 1.5 billion dollars, they're looking to raise that, because there is still concern in the market on the monsanto psy the regulators could block the deal after so many other transactions in that space. julie: as you reported ayer isay, they are -- b
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looking at antitrust resistance, looking to selloff its dermatology business. what are you hearing from analysts in terms of what else -- bayer may are need to do to get the deal done? aaron: they have to go through the portfolios of both companies and look at where they have large market shares and sell certain portions of the seed or pesticides in certain countries to address those concerns. in terms of dermatology, we should see that slightly separate. is pruning their non-core businesses. and it doesn't hurt to raise extra cash. is looking to forget $56 billion for this deal, so even if having an extra $1 billion, doesn't hurt. mark: an exciting next week. thanks for joining us. i know it's a busy few minutes.
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we are entering the final stretch say people familiar with the matter on this deal. julie: hopefully for aaron, he get some rest. we continue to count you down to the european close. i want to get a quick check of u.s. stocks. we are seeing a big selloff today, down almost 200 points on the dow, down about 190 at the moment. the worst day in more than two months, as we see what's happening in the bond market in terms of the big spike in yields. now translate into the stock market. not just in the u.s., but in europe as well. we continue to cover markets across the day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julie: live from london and new york, i'm julie hyman. mark: i am mark barton, just playing with my bloomberg.
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i was successful, nine minutes to go till the end of today's session. let's get back to what i was inputting. lots of action in the bond market, the german 10 year yield is turning positive for the first time since july following yesterday's decision by the ecb to keep the stimulus program steady for now. richard jones. good afternoon. good to see you again. i have to tell our viewers what i was inputting. it's all about the boj and being one global market now. that's very true. various times, you see a one driver becoming dominant for a few days, and then you turn your attention to the next thing. over the past couple of days, it's been the ecb decision that striven rates higher. that had a ripple effect. you have the boj decision coming up in about a week's time, the week after next. that maybe the next trigger.
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as you say, it's about the boj now. they is there a sense that draghi's to say there's a message. richard: it's an ongoing theme that central bankers have been saying. monetary policy cannot be the only game in town. i think that's one of the themes that is dominating, more so as we move forward into the negative interest rate policy, i think there's a realization that there needs to be some fiscal monetary help for policy, and we got that message for mr. draghi yesterday. we had it from other central bankers as late as well. julie: it doesn't look like that fiscal policy is coming either. it's election season in the u.s., spain doesn't have a government, the u.k. has to
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, hopefullye brexit smoothly. in the absence of that, is there anything that's going to stop this reversal that we've seen in yield? richard: there's a couple of things you mentioned that i think are worth focusing on. in the u.s., jeffrey gundlach has been out with interesting commentary the past 24 hours or so. one of the things he said is he respective of whether donald hillary clinton win the white house, there will be more fiscal spending. there will be more deficit spending in the united states, both have pledged to do that. i think that's one of the reason the jeff gundlach has said u.s. yields are probably bottomed out. and you're talking about the u.k., philip hammond said they probably will be taking a sledgehammer approach to fiscal easing. really, there's a lot of uncertainty around fiscal policy. there is a feeling that it's
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coming. the degree to which it is coming is the big question. that is what yields will key off of. julie: in terms of what yields will key off of, to what degree is the japanese action driving the rest of the market? because of traders positioning in japan, and that creating a ripple effect. market, -- i said to to mark, it is one big trade. at various stages, depending on what the news flow is dictating, the ecb yesterday was dictating the news flow for the past couple of days. we had bank of england doing it last month when they eased policy. fed ratehe said -- the decision and the boj rate decision. it could be we get a mix of all of those things together driving bond prices. we don't get a dislocation or disentanglement of one bond market from another. they are all wrapped up together. for: you don't get that
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many market. the wonderful story we showed yesterday, it's wonderful if you can call it that, correlation between asset classes the closest correlation since 2008, which is causing jitters among some. of thoseit's one things, we've been around long enough to know that the old adage was when equity prices go up, on prices go down and vice versa. we see bond prices decline with equities, and that's a strange correlation. it's as a result of all of this unconventional policy we are seeing. mark: richard jones, good to see you. it is 4:26 in london, the european close is four minutes away. stocks are going to finish the session down. this is bloomberg. ♪
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and newve from london york you are watching the european close.
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live in london. julie hyman is in new york finishing the friday section. the biggest decline for the stoxx 600 since august. we have not fallen for two consecutive days cents august 17, the two weeks of gains before this week have been crushed by the longest winning stretch since july. disappointment over mario draghi it is one of those days where bonds are falling, stocks are falling as well. all asset classes are getting hammered. this is an asset class with equities avoid industry group that has not been heard since the brexit. a rally in construction since a couple of days after brexit. the best-performing industry group after banks is construction. rising by 22% beer the stoxx 600 up by 12.5%.
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speculation growing the government will raise public spending. thataribas is among those raised the prospect of more stimulus, draghi alluding to more stimulus yesterday. fiscal stimulus is already reflected in the prices so further gains are unlikely. construction traded 17 point times the earnings. is that pricey? this is the u.k. 10 year. what movement we are seeing across global bond markets. his is the chart that shows you how far we have come since brexit. just before the brexit boat we 1.3% on the 10 year and came 1.3% on the 10 year and came down. after the boe added stimulus on august 4 we are above 86 basis points. we are to where we were just
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before the boe added stimulus on august 4. that wonderful chart part one. this is wonderful chart part two. if you are a bond eke like me, you will be excited that the german 10 year yield is above zero. this is a 12 month chart. we fell below zero in june and went down to -18 races points. because of draghi, and because of the fact that he did not discuss expanding stimulus, we are seeing a real reaction across bond markets in europe and the rest of the world. julie: i want to talk about the longer end of the curve. that is where we are seeing the biggest moves. the 30 year across the board. in the u.s., nine basis points. in the u.k., 13 basis points. japan, eight basis points. theses partially because
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bonds have outperformed in recent months. looking around the globe in terms of stimulus, these bonds can be affected the most by recent commentary from the ecb. this is feeding back into stocks in europe and the united states where we are poised to break the lowball streak for the s&p 500. in all talk about that moment. the s&p down by 24 points, more than 1%, being led by the interest-rate-sensitive groups. courtney collins has more fro midtown manhattan. courtney? ordinate: the nasdaq is moving lower him down for a second .traight day, down over 1% it is saying the biggest intraday drop in a month. this selloff is coming after the nasdaq hit 2 consecutive all-time highs of tuesday and wednesday here one stock moving the nasdaq lower is sky works,
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5% biggest lagger, down over here the number two client is samsung. it could be feeling the fallout from the samsung recall of the note 7 yesterday after the devices could explode or catch fire when charging. the faa is suggesting that people do not bring those devices on airplanes of the u.s. luggage.hem in samsung had to recall all $2.5 million from when they were shipped. following ind be sympathy. i'm trying to find a bright spot, and that is a lexicon pharmaceuticals, up 18%. the biggest gain in 10 months and stocks at the highest levels in almost three years. that is because of a diabetes 1ll used to treat type
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diabetes. it has good reviews in late-stage trials. tos drug is licensed france's largest pharmaceutical company. pharmaceuticals would get the royalties. that is what is going on at the nasdaq. julie: thank you. it is courtney times to. -- times two. courtney donahue has more from the newsroom. courtney: president obama bowing the u.s. would never accept north korea as it nuclear state. now has thesays it ability to put a nuclear warhead on a rocket. president obama told japan and south korea that the u.s. is .repared to defend the region angela merkel's main antagonist is pressing her to change course in the refugee coda. one million arrived in germany last year.
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the head of the bavarian christian social union is part of angela merkel's coalition. tourists were rescued from the apls after being trapped in cable cars over mount blanc. they got stuck after the cables tangled at an outer tube of 12,000 feet. theresa may announced the first , allowing the creation of grammar schools which selects students as young as 10. they were popular in the 1960's, but fell out of favor because of a negative effect on student that did not qualify. -- aopened a foral formal bribery case against sepp blatter. he would pay bonuses of tens of millions of dollars here at
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prosecutors say this case relates to bribery, corruption, and accepting gifts. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. closingropean stocks for a second day, following, getting pounded, heading for the biggest drop since the aftermath of the brexit. realizing that central banks may retreat from stimulus measures. stood on, mario draghi stimulus. and eric rosengren said waiting too long to raise rates could overheat the economy. joining me is the vice-chairman of equities with $154 billion under management. europe's fear index, the volatility gauge. this is a one-year chart, patrick. when you look at the year, that is not significant. what is significant is
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volatility at one year lows. it has been muted across asset classes. -- is todayn the the beginning of the return of volatility, and if so, what does it mean? >> we are coming to the end of the summer anyway. lowvolatility, we have seen volatility for a couple of months. the industries are at all time highs. maybe volatility picks up a little here because of what draghi said yesterday. announcementsese before around the pickups in volatility around fed statements. only then do they settle down again. i am still optimistic about equities, generally. they beat the volatility picks up a little. mark: we have seen this great rotation in the third quarter
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defensivecal to globally. the outperformance is 10%. is the growth warranted? can they justify it? in the u.s.? can they justify it or not? patrick: it is amazing how much for the around that past week. it fell below 50. everyone said the u.s. is contracting so everyone is worried. i looked at the ism this morning you see with the ism did at the end of 2015 and 2016, that was going down. productivity was going down. gdp was going up. you must remember that manufacturing is 12% of the u.s. economy. the service component is still quite strong. consumption and consumer
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spending has been a bright spot. the commerce department said consumer spending was up .3% in july -- was up by july. consumer confidence the best it has been in 12 months. i do not necessarily feel like the economy is slowing. the that reason, these indicators are a one-off. they will start to improve in the second part of the year. very interesting evolution how marketsts and are thickening up because of the weaker dollar. speaking of emerging markets, since you mentioned it, since these markets can benefit from growth in the u.s. and elsewhere, we have seen a negative correlation between u.s. rates and emerging markets.
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if you could look at this chart on the bloomberg, it is relationship . if we see rates go up once again , how much of a problem will that be for emerging markets? patrick: it is more of a question of the dollar. the dollar, if you put the equivalent chart up of the dollar and emerging markets they trade in tandem here the dollar is down 5% on a trade weighted basis. they import oil, which is costing in dollars, four trillion in capital flows to emerging markets in 10 years. suddenly, costs are coming down dramatically in dollars. the other thing that i looked at last week was the inflection for the u.s. consumer is when they
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income.discretionary it is interesting china has 6% to 8% discretionary income. at the same point that the u.s. picked up in the stock market and started to outperform was had the consumer discretionary and consumer power. you're beginning to see that it emerging markets. you are only talking about interest rates, they will only go up when the economy could handle it. if you look at the fed in the from 50 basis6%, points to 75 basis points. this is not material. the fed will only put up rates if the economy can handle it. on that basis, the economy will be doing quite well and emerging markets will be doing well behind that. julie: i keep hearing you say
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the word "consumer." not just geographically, but within sectors. you seem to be focusing on cyclical sectors, which makes sense if you think consumer spending is picking up. which sectors are the most attractive? patrick: good question. the consumer discretionary side is our favorite. it would be the other. financials and industrials we are warming to. financials are almost like consumer stock because people .orrow when confidence is good what is happening at the yield curve on the long end, the banks have been one of the strongest performing areas in europe since may. they are picking up in the u.s. as well. i would say consumer discretionary first, i.t., financials is third.
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that is our response at the moment. mark: have a good weekend, patrick spencer, vice-chairman of equities. get to judgei battle of the charts. double bubble in bonds or buying european banks. which chart comes out on top. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julie: this is exciting. it is time for the global battle of the charts where we look at the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors. you can run the function featured at the bottom of your screen to access the charts. kicking things off is oliver renick.
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tell me what it means. oliver: this is the market story of the day. bonds selling off and stocks selling off. why? we think of them similarly inversely to each other. the 30-day correlation between bond yields on the 10 year and s&p. the inverse correlation, the positive price correlation, since the end of june. is the correlation moving more negative when we talk about yield versus stock price? bond and stock prices are moving in the same direction on the same days. the negative this month. we're seeing it today where people are selling bonds and stocks. why? the top panel explains part of this. we have been talking about how the trade for a stock has been trade in the time sectors, the bond replacement. you are looking at the purple
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line, utilities, orange, consumer staples, the most popular traits of the year. expensive,t more people put more into those sectors. when bond yields jump you get hawkish behavior that could jostle the market. today. the market story i do not know how you vote against the market story. last guest was talking about if we see rotation into cyclical groups, that could be positive. the heat is on, mark. your where can they find chart? -- e: g #btv they rose for their third day this is the stoxx 600. they are up 26% from the july low. we know they are steepening
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yield curve means that the banks should see better profits. is there more goodness or european banks when it comes to share prices? technical analysis tells you absolutely. this is the 200 day moving average. it met the white line. when that happens, that should be supported to european bank share prices. the last time that happened was february of last year. european banks went on to rise 16%. the overall european stock market rose 8%. go with the bank, that is the technical analysis. julie: the number of his chart? #btv 3424.is g julie: i will vote for all of her. i like the way it encapsulates what is going on -- i will vote
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for oliver. i like the way it encapsulates what is going on. mark: i will shake it up. oliver,ng to vote for which puts him in a gallery for the first ever time. oliver gets it. ryan: i will be back. oliver: i have been watching ryan coming out strong. ryan: i will forgive you. mark: the house passing legislation allowing 9/11 victims to sue saudi arabia reliability in the attacks. the obama administration and the saudi government have opposed the bill. president obama is likely to veto the measure. this comes days ahead of the anniversary of the terror attacks. onmemoration of the ceremony
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sunday at 8:45 eastern, 1:45 in london. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julie: live from london and new york i'm julie hyman. mark: i am mark barton. close.""the european julie: the upcoming meeting with the boston fed president. waiting too long to raise rates could threaten the u.s. economy. stephen major, the hsbc head of global income research gave us his take. >> they need to get to more balance around the meeting. they should not have a meeting if everyone is sure they will not do anything. if they wanted to hike they want it to not be a huge market shock. the speeches are being used to
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manipulate it higher, but i reckon nothing will happen. >> i was a jackson hole, and a lot of them said they are focusing on the wrong thing, they should be looking at the path which is shallow and gradual. if we get a trade, does the market overreact. >> if they hike once a year for eight years they will get to 2%. there you go. the path is what everyone should be looking at. there was plenty of talk. are aroundng papers whatcall a real natural rate of interest. it is to me the points of hiking is to have something to cut later, but that does not seem to get good reason to hike. >> you had a famous call of going to 150 and we broke through that in july. where do you see u.s. treasuries and the next six months to a year? in u.s.,elds went
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japan, germany, below every expected. rather than change the forecast we left them where they were. i think brexit was the reason you got treasuries down to 130. now, we have regained 30 basis points to 160 here at our forecast remains at 150. >> what happened? on the back of the ecb you had quite a bit movement in treasury. than 10 basis points. a big move if you are on the wrong end. willnot think g4 markets move out of the 30 to 40 basis point range they are sitting at. in the meantime, all of the excitement over every policy move. quickly,going to ask does a fed move anytime in the next couple of months change your forecast? >> absolutely not.
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one, i think they will do nothing. , i'm more interested in the balance sheets and what happens to the bond market. it is possible the bond market could move without any said fundship. julie: that was the hsbc head of global fixed income research. sincethe biggest decline early august. the biggest decline since the beginning of last month. did absolutely nothing. there were no indications there would be further easing. the stoxx 600 down 1%. bloomberg markets continues. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it is now and in new york, 5:00 in london. i am that miller. >> welcome to bloomberg markets.
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scarlet: welcome to bloomberg world headquarters in new york. the s&p headed for the biggest or treat sense of june as the 10 year treasury note jumps to the highest since that month. scarlet: jack bogle joins us as he celebrates 40 years of investing. steady and low-cost returns over the last four decades. why does this method still generate so much addresses and? matt: aetna under fire. withdrawing from obamacare exchanges to get back at the government trying to stop its merger with humana. scarlet: we're nearing the halfway point of the trading day. let's go to abigail doolittle in the market desk in the new york

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